Finally some rain to talk about rather than drought and fires!
A pattern change is going to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the S Plains. So that means good rains for Texas and Oklahoma where it’s been so dry. Also there will be a threat for severe weather as well.
A weak cold front will move in Saturday night and retreat on Sunday which allows moisture to pool along the I-35 corridor with warmer temperatures by late day. We have a slim opportunity for supercell storms to develop between 4-9pm. It’s still early, so things can change of course. The next day brings a few more severe storms to parts of W/C OK as well. After that the focus is just on rainfall and likely some flash flooding.
Here are a look at temperatures this weekend. Notice the increase in moisture Sunday afternoon in the form of mid 60 dewpoints (an important ingredient for severe weather). I’ve also included a model point forecast sounding that indicates, “should” things align just right, the atmosphere would be favorable for tornadoes. But remember the rule, 36-48 hours from the event is when we talk about tornadoes in more detail, since they are rare and require perfect conditions to form.
Below are a few of the long range models showing rainfall totals from Sunday through Friday. Amounts and locations of the heavier pockets will move around, but this gives you a general idea of what is coming our way.
I’ll update the severe weather aspect of things as we get closer to the events. Please share and check back for updates. -AT