I am taking a shot at a marginal setup for an isolated, photogenic,
marginally severe storm in far Southwest KS. There is a narrow axis
of 48 to 52 degree dewpoints moving up into far southwest KS providing
900 to 1200 J/kg CAPE where temperatures have warmed into the lower
80s. I am observing a clusted of high based cumulus to my west near
Richfield, KS at this time. It is currently in the dry air where
dewpoints are in the mid-upper 30s… but 46 to 48F dewpoints are
about to become ingested into this highly convergent area, so I am
hoping that a decent isolated storm can result here. We’ll see what
happens. I’m only 100 miles from Dodge, so it’s a decent gamble in my
eyes. I’m due in to work at midnight tonight, so I have time to play
around with whatever develops since it would be moving in the
direction of home.

Source: Under the Meso

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