The setup for severe weather to occur late Sunday doesn’t appear to be much of a possibility. The dryline circulation along with very weak mid level forcing may be enough to trigger one or two storms but otherwise it will be quiet along the TX/OK border. Any storm that does develop would be severe with large hail and a possible tornado.

The bigger setup is Monday afternoon/evening across WC OK running N/S along the dryline. A little better lift, moisture, and therefore instability should be present to allow a few severe storms to develop. These would contain all modes from hail, wind to a couple of tornadoes and would drift eastward towards I-35 during the evening.

The following maps highlight the trouble zone for Monday:

stpsc

Tornado Parameter, meaning where shear is most optimized for tornadic development.

capeshearsc

CAPE represents where the energy/moisture in the atmosphere is located along with wind vectors to indicate turning.

nam4km_2016030612_036_35.59--98.87

Finally, the model forecast sounding indicates many case studies matching not only severe storms, but also strong tornadoes.

Additional showers and storms will develop and move through the state Tuesday and Wednesday as well but the severe threat is greatly diminished. However severe storms will continue south into Texas.

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