So the latest model data continues to suggest a favorable thermodynamic profile to trigger a few supercells in parts of W/NW Oklahoma by late tomorrow afternoon. These storms would contain large hail and damaging winds. The situation is conditional, meaning storms will have a harder time breaking the CAP (inversion layer) farther south. I think I-40 is about the southern extent with a greater likelihood closer to the KS border. Any cell that manages to stay together as we approach dark will be able to tap into better moisture and shear, which increases the potential for tornadoes. This would be primarily during the 6pm to 9pm time frame as the storms travel east before falling apart as the CAP builds stronger. So the active quadrant for tomorrow is the NW 1/4 bounded by I-35 and I-40. If a storm fires far enough south and holds together it could make it into the OKC metro. So that will be an outcome to watch for during the evening hours. Once the storms fire we’ll know the affected areas for the remainder of the evening until they diminish.
The image below is a model estimate of where the supercells might be located around 7pm.
Monday is still a highly conditional day, meaning no guarantee. However if storms do manage to fire, by breaking the CAP, they will be severe with all weather modes: hail, wind, and tornadoes. Central Oklahoma, including the OKC metro is included in this area to watch. The new data that comes in Sunday evening and Monday morning will help to narrow things down a bit and see if our convective temperature will be reached. Without any significant upper or mid level forcing that’s the only way to get a storm to form.
Tuesday is still all over the place, with several models keeping things dry. There are trends in a few of them of a dry southwesterly wind across W OK out ahead of the true dryline. This would limit storm development but may end up focusing it closer to the I-35 corridor as a result. The atmosphere will be primed with the necessary ingredients to produce severe weather should storms occur. We’ll know more about those details Monday morning and Monday night. I’ll update accordingly. -AT