The above graphic is from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday and the positioning of the highest threat areas will be adjusted many times through tomorrow afternoon as new data comes in. You can access this through my weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, by going to the map section and clicking on the icon that looks like a stack of 3 papers.
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Severe Weather Update for Tuesday:
Perusing the latest model data shows a cornucopia of solutions. Several are latching onto the idea of a southwest wind through the I-35 corridor which forms storms east of that boundary towards 7pm. Others keep the dryline and SW winds in W OK and break the CAP and trigger storms around 4pm just SW of the OKC metro assuming we can hit ~80 degrees such as the one listed below:
Hi-res model indicating supercells across the I-35 corridor by late afternoon.
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Still a couple of other models keep us in the mid 70s which means the CAP holds in C OK. Another solution is a large cluster of severe storms breaks out in N TX by mid afternoon which disrupts the flow into C OK limiting storm formation here but allowing it to occur farther NNE. Regardless of how this plays out in C OK, E OK will still see numerous storms as mid and upper level lift kicks out across that region by 9pm. That will enhance the severe weather threat for awhile as they march east.
So to get storms in the OKC metro, we need the SW winds to stay west of here and surface temperatures to climb to around 80 or so. So that is the combination to watch for tomorrow. Should they develop, yes large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes are to be expected. There is no reason to panic, just have a plan in place like you do each Spring here and you’ll be fine.
To recap, severe weather will occur tomorrow across Oklahoma. The most likely areas is the E 1/2 of the state bounded by I-35. The OKC metro is on the fence and could go either way. Unfortunately we won’t know the answer to this until tomorrow morning as the surface field evolves. It’s a very strong storm system, but as always, the devil is in the details, and those details aren’t typically revealed until the day of in this business. So stay tuned, I’ll keep you posted. -AT
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