So by now everyone is well aware that severe weather will return to Oklahoma and surrounding states Tuesday afternoon/evening. The question is where and when. I’ll be able to answer that a little better in the morning, but as of right now it looks like storms could fire as early as 3 pm and quickly move E/NE. The initiation point looks to be just west of hwy 81 according to the latest short term model. Most of the other model data suggests development between there and I-35. Any storm that does form will turn severe quickly with large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as a possibility.
Like we’ve discussed before, there is no need to panic, just have an action plan in place to a designated area of shelter and you’ll be fine. As far as the OKC metro goes, still looks like a close call but good to err on the side of caution. If storms fire just west of town they’ll be severe as they move through town, otherwise they’ll be stronger as they move E of 35. The severe threat runs N into KS and S into N TX.
Remember that hi-resolution 3km model? It is going back and forth with storms either just W of 35 or E of 35 in the OKC metro. The last run has them east.
However, the HRRR model which typically does very well now has tomorrow in its cross-hairs and indicates storms will fire soon as we climb into the low 80s breaking the CAP near the dryline in WC OK and quickly moving into the OKC metro by 4pm.
Keep in mind other models have mid level instability so strong it forms elevated showers and cloud cover across C OK most of the day limiting surface heating to the mid 70s and therefore keeping things quiet across the metro for late afternoon. That is an outlier solution but none the less, something to consider. We still have tomorrow morning to nail down the final details. I’ll update you then. Get some sleep! -AT