Now, I’m concerned, but doesn’t mean you need to be. So don’t panic or run off screaming after reading this. Just keep your cool and prepare.

Another storm system is moving in on Friday and this one has a textbook look to it for severe weather and tornadoes. That is today, and it could change by tomorrow, so that’s why I caution anything before 36 hours out. So take this with a grain of salt and just as a heads up. I’m not going to use words to frighten you or give you probabilities of seeing a violent tornado in your city, but I am going to show you the data that has piqued my interest, and hence my concern and I don’t get concerned often.

This is just one computer model’s output for Friday afternoon. That statement needs to be understood as there are several and each may say something slightly different.

Warm front draped across I-40 corridor with backed surface winds and plenty of high dewpoints.

Surface dewpoint map and wind field.

Surface dewpoint map and wind field.

Negative tiled trough in the mid levels in the right position to create a very favorable shear profile.

Negative tilted trough axis.

Negative tilted trough axis.

Nice shear profile overlaid onto high CAPE values in same region of the warm sector.

Shear crossover winds and instability.

Shear crossover winds and instability.

Combined parameters showing the area favorable for tornadoes.

Significant tornado parameter.

Significant tornado parameter.

Finally a sounding analysis that indicates trouble.

Sounding profile.

Sounding profile.

I’m hopeful these parameters will change and lessen over time. If not, I hope everyone takes Friday seriously after today’s, less than promised, outcome. I’ll keep you posted. -AT

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