New computer model data is in and it does look like storm initiation will be west of the OKC metro area around 3pm. Surface winds are out of the south verses the southeast so that will help limit the number and strength of tornadoes initially. Both of those should increase later this evening east of I-35.

You can see from the Storm Prediction Center:¬†Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. This means you do not have a 6/10 or 8/10 or 10/10 probability of seeing a tornado. So please don’t panic. Yes there will be a few in C OK later today and if you take precautions, you’ll be fine. Here are their latest maps which they will update again around 8am.

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SPC risk for today.

SPC risk for today.

SPC tornado probability for today.

SPC tornado probability for today.

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SPC large hail zone.

SPC large hail zone.

How to interpret the severe weather risks:

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Finally the latest computer image showing supercells just west of the metro with their updraft tracks overlaid, meaning the model thinks they will be rotating supercells. Not necessarily tornadoes, but you can see it thinks there will be a long track mesocyclones (which produce the tornadoes occasionally).

Storms with meso tracks.

Storms with meso tracks.

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