Still watching the model trends tonight…which have lessened the tornado threat just a bit.
Showers and storms will continue to move throughout the state tonight, some with hail and isolated pockets of damaging wind. After late morning to early afternoon that should move into far N/NE OK. So expect a stormy commute in the morning across OKC.
A strong upper system will invoke a region of low pressure across SW OK which will lift a warm front northward. Storms near this boundary will need to be watched carefully. South of this front will be a dryline which will also need to be monitored by late afternoon.
[su_spacer size=”10″]
Where the front, dryline and surface low setup is key to this forecast. Unfortunately the latest models are now at odds and we may not know until the morning. The NAM model with its 4km and 12km counterparts differs much more than before. One has 2 areas of low pressure, the other just one. If the main low stays in SW OK, then the severe threat is mostly confined down into SC OK and parts of N TX. If the front lifts north as the other model suggests with a low in SC KS, that takes the severe weather threat with it back into C OK. The different solutions are posted.
Double low shown by 12km NAM. Low near Lawton would travel up the turnpike to OKC bringing the threat to C OK by early evening.
Single stronger low in SW OK over Lawton traveling more E keeping the warm front south of the greater OKC metro.
[su_spacer size=”10″]
All modes of hazardous weather will be present in any late afternoon/evening storm that forms. Hail, wind, and tornadoes. In the morning, the surface pattern will start to show itself so we’ll have a better idea on where those key features will lie. Regardless of the final placement, just remain calm and have a plan in place and you’ll be fine. Remember, statistics are on your side. Always get to the lowest floor, center part of the building you are in. The idea is to put as many walls between you and the outside that you can. Also please don’t let the results of Tuesday prevent you from taking this potential outcome seriously. Just plan anyway.
[su_spacer size=”10″]
The 12km NAM model shown below continues to indicate a favorable thermodynamic setup for tornadic supercells. The location will likely move around a bit, but still looks centered across C OK. Timing for severe storm development at this point is anytime after 3pm, and could end up being fairly late closer to 6pm.
Tornado parameters still high across the OKC metro. So stay vigilant.
Sounding has backed off of the extreme PDS Tornado category, but still indicates potential for trouble.
[su_spacer size=”10″]
I’ll post one final update in the late morning. -AT
Liked it? Take a second to support Aaron Tuttle on Patreon!
Aaron Tuttle is a degreed Meteorologist residing in Oklahoma City. He provides forecasts and severe weather coverage to the state of Oklahoma and beyond. Download his free app, ATsWeatherToGo today.
Never turn down a rain in Oklahoma, even if the catfish are spawning on the front porch.
From draught to drowning...figuratively, of course.
Bring on more! We really needed it.
Thankful. Would like 2 or three sunny warm days then I don’t mind more rain. I have so many veggies to get in the ground. Any weather updates today Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist ? Thanks!
Wish Tillman county and sw Oklahoma could get that much we need it
Then we won’t have rain for two weeks and they will say we are in a drought 😂
“If you don’t like the weather in Oklahoma, wait a few minutes and it’ll change.” -Will Rogers
That less than an inch in the panhandle does not take us out of the drought …..wind will dry it fast !!!
We have over 6 Inches the past couple days in our front yard. Lol
I haven't checked today but this was yesterday. It was from the past days together.
I am in that orange area. PTL! The ponds are full again!
At 91st and Deleware in Tulsa we got 4.1 inches in our backyard rain gauge from Monday morning through Tuesday night.
We live just north of bristow and we got more than 3.27. More like 5
We, needless to say, don't like the amount we got. This is our driveway and the only way in or out. No way to fix it. Pray please.
That will definitely heighten the reservoir levels across the state.
And the garden is loving it!
We’ve had 3 inches of rain so far in Anadarko….
I’m NE of Norman and I already have 4.5 inches of rain and it’s still coming down.
Over 7” in Cushing for 3 day total
Will this rain help keep it from getting so hot this year?
That yellow area in Seminole county gave me 4.5” in 24 hours 👍🏼
Southerly winds will warm temperatures this afternoon into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Saturday will be warmer, in the 90s and lower 100s. Isolated thunderstorms out west may produce damaging wind in the late afternoon and evening. #okwx #texomawx
Got lots going on this weekend? Never leave infants, young children, or pets unattended in vehicles. Even if the air temperature outside is reasonably cool, inside vehicles temperatures rapidly increase.
✅Set reminders
✅Communicate with spouse/caregivers
#WeatherReady