A new trend in the model data over the last 24 hours has been to increase the deeper moisture as we head into Sunday evening as storms approach from the west. Initially supercell storms should break the CAP along the dryline in far W OK by mid afternoon producing large hail and damaging winds. The ones that don’t fall apart would then travel east into C OK by 6pm. Wind shear and instability are more than adequate for a tornado threat to increase in C OK and this does include the greater OKC area. As we get close to dark the storms should start to weaken as they move east of I-35 out of the greatest region of instability.
Until then, most of the weekend looks good. A few showers will transverse the state early Sunday morning, scattered in nature, then clear out. Storms should fire along the dryline near the TX border by 4pm. If for some reason they don’t, then the CAP held and the risk for any severe weather goes up in smoke.
Here are the latest groups of computer models suggesting a handful of storms breaking out in W OK by 4pm.
As the storms move east they’ll tap into deeper moisture and better shear, so the tornado threat will increase. This model is forecasting a supercell storm with a strong track mesocyclone to move into the metro by 6-7pm.
Forecast sounding for the OKC area during the 7pm time frame highlighting a concern for tornadoes.
So have a plan in place for late afternoon/early evening should you find yourself in the path of one of these storms and you’ll be fine. I plan on live streaming severe weather coverage late Sunday afternoon once it looks like a tornado threat is imminent. We’re just now in the 36 hour window, so I’ll be able to fine tune these detials a little better each model run from here out. Next update Sunday morning. -AT