Our next round of severe storms moves through the E half of OK tomorrow afternoon and evening. They should fire around 3pm just west of I-35 along the dryline and continue to strengthen the farther east they travel. Wind shear and instability will improve as the day goes on. So for the I-35 corridor, in the storms infancy, it’s mostly a large hail and damaging wind threat. That said, there is a low tornado threat as well, but that goes up a bit the more eastward they go later in the day.

Here’s a computer model image showing more supercell storms developing off the dryline by 4pm.

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Supercell storms developing around 3pm.

Supercell storms developing around 3pm. Image shown at 4pm.

Expected position of dryline by 4pm.

Dryline, noted at the left side of the dark green color.

Dryline, noted at the left side of the dark green color.

There’s really just a very small window of time for the greater OKC metro area, roughly 3-5pm. Model soundings right now indicate a favorable thermodynamic profile for a weak tornado potential.

Forecast sounding in OKC.

Forecast sounding in OKC.

If any of this needs adjusting, I’ll update tomorrow morning. -AT

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