Our next round of severe storms moves through the E half of OK tomorrow afternoon and evening. They should fire around 3pm just west of I-35 along the dryline and continue to strengthen the farther east they travel. Wind shear and instability will improve as the day goes on. So for the I-35 corridor, in the storms infancy, it’s mostly a large hail and damaging wind threat. That said, there is a low tornado threat as well, but that goes up a bit the more eastward they go later in the day.
Here’s a computer model image showing more supercell storms developing off the dryline by 4pm.
Expected position of dryline by 4pm.
There’s really just a very small window of time for the greater OKC metro area, roughly 3-5pm. Model soundings right now indicate a favorable thermodynamic profile for a weak tornado potential.
If any of this needs adjusting, I’ll update tomorrow morning. -AT