The latest computer models continue to indicate a few supercell storms breaking the CAP and developing along the dryline in W OK from the KS border down to the TX state line by 4pm. A couple of these will die out early while a couple take over producing large hail and damaging wind. They will also likely produce a couple of tornadoes. A limiting factor for any more than that is the lack of significant deep layer moisture. Models were too aggressive in returning that deeper moisture for today as morning observations state that won’t occur in time for the round of severe storms. A slightly larger dewpoint depression helps to keep storms a little more elevated and thus harder to produce tornadoes. Not impossible, just harder. Wind and speed shear is plenty adequate however for tornado formation.
In any event, the storms will thrive during the 4-6pm time frame and once they move into the greater OKC metro region from around 6-7pm, they should weaken rapidly as they migrate away from the axis of the moisture that is available just to the west of town. This would therefore help to limit the tornado threat in the metro somewhat. Not a zero threat, just a low threat. Finally if the CAP holds for whatever reason, then the storm threat vanishes. I’ll be keeping an eye on things this afternoon and be ready to stream live should tornadoes occur.
More storms are expected across the E half of OK tomorrow and we’ll talk about that later. Meanwhile here is the risk for today as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center. -AT