We’re within the 48 hour window of our next storm system that will generate snowfall across Oklahoma. Light snow will start Thursday evening and continue through Friday morning for the more significant amounts. Lingering flurries or light snow will continue off/on through Friday night.

The upper level system is coming out sheared and elongated in nature. This will help to limit snowfall production. If it was more compact and more circular, the energy with the system would be able to produce much more along with having a better moisture supply. The map shown includes the dashed line of the trough axis and the brighter colors indicate the energy/lift associated with it moving through Friday.

Upper level storm system coming across as an elongated trough.

Upper level storm system coming across as an elongated trough.

Amounts from the computer models over the past week have been very inconsistent as expected, but are now congealing into a trend that can be shared with you.

Here are several model snow total outputs below. The takeaway from these is that there will be a very narrow corridor of 1-3″ snowfall amounts running west to east centered near the I-40 corridor. Any slight deviation in the upper system will caused this window to shift around from north to south and vice versa. Just about all of Oklahoma is guaranteed flurries, and most a light dusting. The heaviest snow will fall out into the OK/TX panhandle regions with trailing amounts to the east.

cmc_snow_acc_okc_12 gfs_6hr_snow_acc_okc_11 hiresp_snow_okc_61 namp_3hr_snow_a_okc_21

To show you the short term ensemble model output with it’s many solutions plotted at OKC, the output ranges from 5″ to a dusting. You can throw away the statistical outliers and look at the grouping of the median values which is roughly 1/2″ to 1″ of snow. Personally I think this is a little low and at this time, I think the OKC metro will get 1-2″ of dry powdery snow.

plume

I’ll update again this evening after the newest data comes in with a Facebook Live. Be sure to join me then. Estimated time is around 9pm. Thanks and please share! -AT

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