The forecast in general hasn’t changed, but models have shifted the heavy snow band just a tad north placing all of OKC in the 2-3″ zone. Snow moves in this evening west and central and continues overnight into the early morning hours. Another quick lighter round will move through mid to late morning and again in the early afternoon before winding down.
The actual precipitation (liquid equivalent or QPF) is extremely low around what would be a quarter of an inch of rain at most. However, models insist on a very high snow to liquid ratio of 15 or 20:1 which means it won’t take much to get several inches of snow. This is another reason why snowfall amounts are nearly impossible to predict but we give it our best educated guess.
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Listed below is the snow output from the hi-res Canadian model. I picked this one because out of all of the different solutions, this looks more in line with what should happen. I’ve also included the SREF plum plot to show you the different solutions here in OKC ranging from a 1/2″ to 6″. The median value is 2″. I still think 2-3 will be common across the metro.
Canadian model snow projections.
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SREF ensemble model snow output.
Finally, a couple of educational government graphics on how to measure snow and a look at the terminology involved.
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