The two maps below show what the temperatures will look like Friday morning and the precipitation. The only change I would make is to lower temps a little more and shift the freezing line more south and east to possibly the red line. The precipitation is light in the form of very light spotty freezing rain showers and freezing drizzle.

Predicted 32 degree line and what may end up being the actual Friday morning.

Predicted 32 degree line and what may end up being the actual Friday morning.

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Rain on the right side of the blue line, and freezing rain/drizzle on the left side (in pink).

Rain on the right side of the blue line, and freezing rain/drizzle on the left side (in pink).

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The front that moved in overnight IS NOT the front that will move in tonight. That front is just now pushing into the N Plains and it’s brutal. I posted the surface observation maps below which shows temps in the -20s behind the second front. That’s why you can’t trust models with arctic air.

First front today. Models underestimated the cold air with it.

First front today. Models underestimated the cold air with it.

 

2nd true arctic front from the N Pole. Models underestimating it as well.

2nd true arctic front from the N Pole. Models underestimating it as well.

The other issue is heavy freezing drizzle for the majority of the event Friday and even into Saturday over the OKC metro may allow ice accumulations to adhere to surfaces better than if it were just freezing rain (ie no runoff). Think ocean spray along a beach and picture some of those coastal areas encased in ice. The flip side of that, if it’s too light then some of it evaporates in the drier air and doesn’t allow true wet-bulbing.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. The data coming in tonight should finally have a grasp on the depth of the cold air. Regardless of that, the forecast doesn’t change overall. I expect an ice rink tomorrow morning in OKC from a thin coat of freezing drizzle starting by 3am. -AT

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