A nice dry weekend will turn into a stormy week as multiple rounds of severe weather are expected. The days with the most certainty are Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Wednesday is a possibility and Saturday looks to be very heavy rainfall. Total rainfall for the 5 day period from Tuesday to Saturday will range from 1″ to 12″ across the state. That will lead to flash flooding again and of course obliterate whatever drought remains, which isn’t much. The map of rainfall will change but it shows the potential.

Model estimated rain totals through Saturday.

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Current drought conditions.

As far as the type of severe weather, typically in this setup we deal with all modes: hail, wind, and tornadoes. When we get within 48 hours we can pinpoint where the most likelihood of who will be impacted and by what means. What we’ll be focusing on is surface boundaries and the favorable CAPE/Shear combination such as this forecast image here shows for Thursday. The CAP will also be a factor, which if too strong, will limit storm development and/or coverage.

CAPE (instability) and Shear.

This is the peak of our severe weather season, so this pattern for next week is nothing unusual. We’ve only had 12 tornadoes so far this season. We normally see around 27 up to mid May on average and see 23 for the Month itself. 56 tornadoes occur on a yearly average with 9 of those taking place after June.

Remember, no need to panic, just make sure you have a plan and take action when that moment comes. Having multiple sources to get weather information is crucial in case one breaks down. An excellent option is my ATsWeatherToGo mobile app. It predicts tornadic development before a warning is issued. This gives you more time to prepare. When seconds count, give yourself minutes! -AT

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