The latest Canadian model continues to pour gasoline on the fire as we officially welcome the calendar start to Winter this Thursday, the 21st. An increase in strength with the upper level storm system, favorable track, and the cold air arriving in time spells classic winter storm for Oklahoma. I have been forecasting this scenario since Saturday hoping models would come around to my idea. This one is the first. Will the others follow? Time will tell.
Regardless here is the breakdown should all of this verify. Freezing drizzle starts Thursday night and Friday morning and transitions to moderate freezing rain by Friday evening/night. Sleet becomes a factor midday Saturday before finally transitioning to snow. It’s still way to early to talk about amounts but if this solution verifies, travel would be an issue.
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The maps show the different time stamps and output expected. We’ll see another round of light snow Sunday and flurries on Monday. What concerns me is the warm air advection pattern showing up in the model data for Tuesday night through Friday of next week. That warm moist air overriding the Arctic air will encase Oklahoma in ice for days on end until the final system moves through on the 29th. This is a long ways out and is what the model is stating will happen. It’s been the most consistent, so it has my attention. -AT
Friday Night
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Saturday morning.
Midday Saturday. Freezing rain has transitioned to sleet.
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Late Saturday. Sleet now snow.
Sunday morning. Second wave of light snow moving in.
Warm air advection (overrunning) leading to freezing drizzle, freezing fog, clouds, freezing rain Wednesday morning. Not good.
The next Friday winter storm with more cold air to follow.
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