If you recall about 10 days ago I mentioned the jet stream pattern would shift to a favorable position to allow the coldest air possible to move south into the country. Earlier computer models indicated this would happen tomorrow (Wed) morning with those numbers around -6 degrees. I received a lot of flack for that. I cautioned and said the signal is still there, it’s just going to arrive a few days later.
Well, fast forward to today. Models in agreement again that indeed the pipe bursting temperatures are on the way. Unfortunately it’s at the worst time. Indications are that the most brutal part of the intrusion will be during New Year’s Eve. Can you imagine temperatures below zero at midnight with a wind chill of -25 degrees?
So, factor this possibility into your party plans as it will be extremely dangerous for prolonged exposure outdoors. I’ve included a few maps below to give you an idea of what’s coming our way. Model ensembles are in agreement, so there is decent confidence in this solution.
Temperatures at midnight on New Year’s Eve.
Wind chills at midnight New Year’s Eve.
Temperatures Monday morning.
Wind Chills Monday morning.
Temperatures Monday afternoon.
As far as any winter precipitation is concerned, it appears there will be a light mix of freezing rain/drizzle/sleet and snow Saturday into Sunday.
Light wintry mix developing on Saturday.
Light winter storm on Sunday.
As always, I’ll update the forecast as necessary. It appears the big story will be the cold rather than the precip. But keep in mind it won’t take much to cause slick roadways in this environment. Please share this information with your friends and family. -AT
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An upper storm system will travel south across the Rockies and dive into W TX. It looks like it will spin its heels for a bit before ejecting across OK late Saturday. As that occurs, a decent cold front will move through Thanksgiving Day, keeping temperatures mostly in the 40s west and low 50s east. Colder air will deepen Friday keeping us in the 30s/40s.
As far as rain goes, expect spotty light showers/sprinkles on Thursday with heavier rain developing Friday afternoon across S OK. That area of rain shifts north overnight into Saturday morning. There is a slim possibility of some of the rain becoming mixed with snow on the back side of the upper low Saturday afternoon/night, but temperatures may moderate just enough by then to keep it all liquid. Rainfall amounts expected through Saturday night are posted below.
Enjoy and Happy Thanksgiving from me, Jodi, Larry, and Penelope!