Finally some rain to talk about rather than drought and fires!

A pattern change is going to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the S Plains. So that means good rains for Texas and Oklahoma where it’s been so dry. Also there will be a threat for severe weather as well.

A weak cold front will move in Saturday night and retreat on Sunday which allows moisture to pool along the I-35 corridor with warmer temperatures by late day. We have a slim opportunity for supercell storms to develop between 4-9pm. It’s still early, so things can change of course. The next day brings a few more severe storms to parts of W/C OK as well. After that the focus is just on rainfall and likely some flash flooding.

Here are a look at temperatures this weekend. Notice the increase in moisture Sunday afternoon in the form of mid 60 dewpoints (an important ingredient for severe weather). I’ve also included a model point forecast sounding that indicates, “should” things align just right, the atmosphere would be favorable for tornadoes. But remember the rule, 36-48 hours from the event is when we talk about tornadoes in more detail, since they are rare and require perfect conditions to form.

Temperatures Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures Sunday morning.

Temperatures Sunday afternoon.

Dewpoints Sunday afternoon. Moisture pooling into C OK.

Model forecast sounding for C OK indicating potential for tornadic supercells late Sunday.

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Below are a few of the long range models showing rainfall totals from Sunday through Friday. Amounts and locations of the heavier pockets will move around, but this gives you a general idea of what is coming our way.

Rainfall totals through Friday. Model #1

Rainfall totals through Friday. Model #2

Rainfall totals through Friday. Model #3

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I’ll update the severe weather aspect of things as we get closer to the events. Please share and check back for updates. -AT

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