The big story for Friday will be the widespread wildfires that will erupt around the region as a dryline surges east and then followed by a cold front late day. Any storm activity will be isolated and confined to the E 1/3 of OK, from roughly Tulsa due south and then eastward into Arkansas. Typical severe weather threat; hail and wind with an isolated tornado. There’s still no guarantee severe storms will form. Most models don’t they will. I think the CAP will break along the dryline to allow at least a couple to get going, but nothing widespread.
Here are some key images below captioned.
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Wind gusts overnight. Up to 60 mph which is severe criteria. Will drop down closer to 30-40 on Friday.
Temperatures warm nicely Friday behind the dryline in C OK.
The dryline is the demarcation line between moisture and dry air and is the zone for storm initiation.
CAPE values indicate 3,000 Jules of energy to work with in the storm initiation zone.
Infrared Satellite model forecast indicates storms form along dryline region by 3pm.
However same model struggles with reflectivity output indicating uncertainty.
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Here are other hi-res models showing that no storms will develop at all except for maybe far E OK:
Model #1
Model #2
Model #3
Model #4.
So in summary, if you live in E OK and a storm manages to form, just pay attention to it and use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to stay safe. It will alert you if you will be directly affected. Otherwise for the rest of us, keep an eye out for fires and have an evacuation plan ready if needed. Be safe everyone! -AT
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