Thanks to a nearby upper level low in Kansas, Oklahoma will experience enough shear combined with instability to produce large hail, damaging winds and yes a brief weak tornado or two across parts of Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The most likely area for severe weather will be closer to the upper low, so that means the N 1/3 of OK. This doesn’t mean storms won’t occur across the I-40 corridor, it just means the most potent ones will occur north of this boundary. Short version, we could see some large hail and damaging wind in the greater OKC region. Any isolated tornado activity should be confined to the northern areas of the state, roughly east/west along 412 from say NW OK to the Tulsa area. Timing is from 3pm to about 10pm.

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Models indicate the first storms will fire out west near a weak cold front by 3pm.

An area of concern that includes stronger storms will move across the northern counties by 6pm.

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Finally storms will back build into the OKC/I-40 corridor closer to dark.

The most likely area for the supercell type storms that could produce a brief weak tornado are indicated in the shaded colored areas. (Ignore SE OK)

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Supercell composite. Most favorable area for severe storms.

If we were to see a significant tornado (ie not weak) it would mostly likely occur in or near the shaded areas across the north. I don’t see much potential in SE OK.

Tornado index.

As with any severe weather event, just have a plan in place should the need arise and stay indoors and away from windows when storms approach. Summertime downbursts can be quite damaging. In addition the hail size will be around 2″ in some of the stronger storms. -AT

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