The upper jetstream pattern is about to become a little more active again for Oklahoma as a broad trough of low pressure develops out across the western United States. That places Oklahoma in a SW flow which brings Pacific moisture and at times upper level disturbances to trigger rainfall. Sometimes we get severe weather in this setup too. So here are the details…
Expect mostly 80s this week for highs, with each morning starting out with low clouds, patchy fog and or drizzle on some days and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. This is the case statewide. On Wednesday the remnants of a tropical storm will move across KS but not have much influence on Oklahoma. After that a cold front moves in slowly on Friday and lingers into the weekend. As upper energy approaches from the west, expect off and on rounds of rain Friday night out west and north expanding elsewhere on Saturday and continuing through the middle of next week. The pattern finally changes by Thursday the 11th bringing back the 40s for lows that weekend. A lot of rain will fall during this time. Some of the models give their idea of estimates below.
Notice how rainfall amounts between the old and new version of the American model differ. The new version is proving to have a better forecasting skill and track record so far, but it is still in beta testing. The take home is that the upgraded version has lower rainfall amounts which match better with the other models.
As I’ve mentioned many times before, DO NOT focus on exact placement of the heaviest totals. Models are not that good. However, do pay attention to the trend. Which is to expect another event with 2-4″ of rain statewide, with some areas experiencing flooding due to higher amounts. I’ll update periodically on Facebook Live for any changes to this outlook. Be sure to become a Patron so you don’t miss any updates. I give you access to a secret group Facebook page that guarantees you’ll get every notification when I post something so you’re always in the know. Sign up today! Become a Patron Here