Okay so last Monday during a Facebook Live (7:20 mark) I mentioned some light snow coming for tomorrow (Monday). There was a weak signal but worth addressing. Fast forward 24 hours later and Tuesday night the European model took that flurry activity and transformed it into a good ‘ole fashioned snow storm for Oklahoma. I made a quick Facebook post about it Wednesday morning and then addressed it in Facebook Live’s since then starting with this one Wednesday night.

The good news is (if you like snow), the forecast hasn’t changed at all. Snow is on the way! Whoohoo! So let’s break it down with a few model estimations and then I’ll summarize what will happen below.

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European model which started this whole mess!

 

Hi-res short term model.

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Highest resolution model.

 

Canadian model.

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Graphical depiction of snow totals from various models across OKC. Range from half an inch to nearly 4.

 

SREF ensemble hi-res short-term model showing a wide solution of outcomes across OKC. Dusting to 10″!

So what does this all mean? Well besides the fact that this event occurs mostly in the next 24 hours, models still can’t decide on a uniform snow projection, and they never will. Different models use different physics and input variables. So here’s the take home:

First off, ground temperatures are still fairly warm, so expect some melting of at least a 1/3 of the snow that falls. The rest will stick.

Ground temperatures.

Forecast: Light snow will start in the panhandles and NW/W OK later this evening and spread slowly eastward overnight. OKC will start getting the change over from rain to snow by 3am. Tulsa by 5am. The heaviest snow will fall during the morning hours and taper off rather quickly after lunch. Residual flurries will continue through 7pm in C OK and until midnight in far E OK. Check ODOT for road conditions but most should be okay. The heaviest snow will fall across W/NW OK with as much as 6″ in some areas. Lighter amounts between 1-4″ will occur along the I-44 corridor, which includes OKC and Tulsa. A secondary hot spot of 5+” may occur along a very narrow band in SE OK most likely along a line from McAlester to Ft. Smith. Temperatures will be nasty cold, struggling to make it to freezing across the NW and holding in the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Counties along the Red River should get at least some flurry activity with some receiving a light dusting.

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