Over the past 10 days through Facebook lives I’ve mentioned a winter storm signal showing up between the 7th and 9th. As we’re getting closer to this time frame, confidence is increasing. As it looks now, expect a decent winter storm by week’s end. It will be a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Does this mean icy roadways for some? Yes. Snow covered roads for others? Yes. I’ll give you an early idea of what the models are hinting at in a moment.

But up first, we are going to get a little bit of light snow Sunday night across the western half of the state stretching into central Oklahoma by daybreak Monday. Amounts will be fairly light but enough to cover the ground white in some areas out west, close to the I-40 corridor. Don’t expect anything more than a very light dusting here in OKC. Temperatures will be much colder Monday as well, only warming into the low 40s by afternoon.

Model 1 for snow Sunday night.

Model 2 for snow Sunday night.

So the storm system coming in by Friday is a combination of an approaching cold front followed by a strong upper level trough. If the trough stays more open, then odds are better for more snow and less ice. If the trough tries to close off into a stronger upper low, then warm advection aloft would lead to an increase in ice and less snow. We’re way too far out to get this specific, but I’ll be watching it closely and updating you as trends develop either way.

Potential look of storm system by Friday night with a mix of rain, ice, and snow.

Model 1 ice totals.


Model 2 ice totals.

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Model 3 ice totals.

Model 1 snow totals.

Model 2 snow totals.


Model 3 snow totals.

Model 4 snow totals.

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As you can see the snow total forecasts are all over the place and that is to be expected. Remember, we can’t give semi-accurate snow totals until starting about 48 hours from the event with more accuracy leading into the day of. Ice totals are a little easier to predict, but again best to wait until about 2-3 days away to start estimating.

So the take home is get ready for a good winter storm that will affect at least parts of Oklahoma and Kansas and surrounding areas for next weekend. The devil is in the details, and they will reveal themselves in the coming days. Stay tuned and share with your friends and family! Oh and please consider signing up to be my Patron. The link is below. Thanks! -AT

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