We’re within the window of short-term computer models now, so I’ll be able to start getting more specific with the forecast. Keep in mind this information will likely be massaged a bit either Thursday or Friday as we get closer to the event, and the data to analyze improves.

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So the arctic front arrives into NW OK Friday afternoon, to OKC by 6pm, Tulsa by midnight, and clearing the state by Saturday morning. Winds will be quite strong behind the front at speeds of 30+ mph. Scattered showers will move through the state during the day Friday and transition to a wintry mix from the OKC area to N and NE OK briefly Friday night. Snow will quickly take over as the dominate precipitation type by early Saturday morning and move across the state. Be careful on any roadways that experience a wintry mix! The cold air and wind chill will be the big story this weekend. Brutal all day Saturday and not much improvement for Sunday. Make sure the faucets, pipes, and pets are all protected.

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Temperatures around 6pm Friday.

Temperatures Saturday morning.

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Wind chill values Saturday morning.

As it looks right now, the highest snow amounts will likely reside across the N 1/3 of the state with just flurries expected across the southern counties. This is assuming the upper low moves across the northern counties and is in the form of an open wave. Should it close off, deepen, and move more south, that leads to more snow. We’re not quite within 48 hours yest, but a few maps are posted below to give you the general idea, which is all over the place. Snowfall forecast will improve with time as the exact track of the upper level low is known.

Model #1 snow totals.

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Model #2 snow totals.

Model #3 snow totals.

I’ll have another update Thursday evening. -AT

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