It’s still early and models struggle with arctic air, but if you’ve watched my last two Facebook Lives I’m concerned we may end up getting significant freezing rain Saturday afternoon/night. You can see the recap from Wednesday night here with more graphical explanation:

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And Thursday lunch time version here:

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The models are fairly consistent with another winter storm of various precipitation types Saturday night and Sunday morning. Here’s an example on midnight Saturday.

Mixed precipitation Saturday night.

My issue is what may transpire before then. High precipitable water values will lead to developing light rain during the day Saturday. This is after an another arctic boundary arrives Friday night. Models although seeing the depth of the arctic air at 1km, are underestimating the cold temperatures with it. I think this is a mistake. So my thought is any rain that falls will be freezing rain on Saturday across C OK. Once again the fine line will be somewhere along or near the I-44 corridor.

Temperatures Saturday morning.

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Thermal profile forecasted by the models Saturday morning.

 

Now I can see what the models are trying to do Saturday afternoon as the rain develops. Since it underestimates the coldness, it actually warms the column up above freezing with the rain and warmer temperatures aloft at 850mb with forcing. That’s a lot of warm air advection mixing downward. So it’s a valid outcome assuming the airmass isn’t too cold and dense. Something I’ll be watching carefully.

850mb warm air advection Saturday morning.

At this point just make alternate plans in case we end up a little icy around here starting early Saturday afternoon verses at night. I’ll have more later on potential totals, but the European model is going for about a half inch of ice or more assuming temperatures are cold enough. -AT

PS. By the way look at these temperatures on Monday morning! Yikes!

Temperatures Monday morning.

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