Just wanted to mention two topics here.

The first, another storm system will work through the state on Friday. The region is capped, meaning a strong inversion that normally prevents thunderstorm development is in place, but there are some indications that the CAP could break across parts of C or S OK. This would trigger a few severe storms. Low level winds are indicated to be weak, which would preclude any tornadic activity, leaning towards wind and hail. However, we’re still quite a ways away before we can get into those details. I’ll update you accordingly, starting Wednesday night.

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According to the model below, SW OK and NW TX has the best ingredients for severe storms with the instability and vertical wind shear. This will continue to change though, which is why it’s too early to get specific. One of the things to watch for is the speed of the cold front and the position of the surface low and dryline. It’s call the triple point and should be the initiation of storm development.

CAPE and Shear overlaid indicating most likely area for severe weather.

The second topic of interest is with the cold front that moves through. Expect cold enough temperatures this weekend to bring many a freeze on Sunday morning and frost on Monday morning. So if you’ve had the urge to plant, you still might want to hold off. Another front may bring a frost to parts of the area April 5th as well, so we’re not quite out of the woods. High temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures Sunday morning.

Temperatures Monday morning.

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Temperatures morning of the 5th.

Also, just a reminder for those new to following me. I have a 48 rule before I start talking about tornadoes. Too many things will change prior to that, and it’s just fantasy talk at that point. The list of ingredients is long and we don’t start seeing those until 2 days out with the final good look the day of the event. So disregard any forecasts of tornadoes this Spring until we get into that window of time. Just remember that it’s all noise to traffic in fear, ratings, and clicks. The science isn’t there beyond 2 days out, and anyone telling you otherwise is lying to you. Don’t fall for it and get anxious. Rest easy, I got you. -AT

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