Are you ready for another stormy period filled with large hail, damaging winds and flooding rainfall? Well, buckle up kids…
Our first MCS (mesoscale convective system) will roll through the state overnight. It won’t be as strong as the event last Sunday, but will still bring heavy rain up to an inch and gusty winds around 50 mph.
Storms Tuesday night.
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The second round comes in Thursday night and Friday morning with a similar outcome as the first.
Storms Thursday night.
Then the atmosphere really increases the instability which allows for more significant severe weather this weekend. CAPE values are off the chart Saturday and Sunday, about as high as they can go. With high lapse rates, high dewpoints, and great directional shear, we’ll see all threats return. This does include the possibility of a tornado. But since that’s outside the 48 hour window I’ll save that for another discussion. The most impressive thing may be hail the size of grapefruits falling from the sky.
CAPE and shear on Saturday.
CAPE and shear on Sunday.
Right now the thought is, storms move through the N half of the state Saturday night and then redevelop across S half on Sunday. However, that’s being very specific and an early summer pattern cautions against doing that this far out. So I’d just plan on having storms both days with the most favorable time frame after 3pm and lingering late evening or possibly overnight.
After that we’ll see additional storms through Wednesday across the state. By the way, rainfall totals overall will be greater than 5″ through the end of June for many areas. Some will receive far more than that, which the global models aren’t able to resolve. Those are dependent on meso and microscale features and training of storms across the same area.
Rainfall estimates through June.
As a reminder I’m just 500 supporters shy of being able to turn off the ads on my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo! Many of you have come out to support my efforts in providing you sanity during severe weather and I greatly appreciate that! Those that become subscribers get bonus content through my closed Facebook group. You can tap the donate tab on my website to pick your method of support. I also wanted to thank each of you that tipped me through Paypal while covering those back to back tornado days. Your generosity helps fund this entire operation. I spend a lot of my free time serving the community, and it’s a good feeling to know that several of you recognize that. I’m forever eternally grateful! -AT
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