We are getting into the toughtest time of year to forecast. As the atmosphere transitions from Fall to Winter things get chaotic quickly. Between now through about Christmas you’ll need to make sure you look for updates as things will change on long range forecasts.

Case in point, things look a lot different for our Thanksgiving Day and afterwards. Even now the signals are all over the place.

First up, the quick moving storm on Tuesday will bring a few showers in the morning across C/E OK, but any snow will stay confined to KS and the OK panhandle. Temperatures will be milder as a result.

Center Phase Energy

Few showers Tuesday.

Milder temperatures Tuesday.

After that jetstream disturbance moves by, another follows Wednesay night across TX that moves through OK on Thanksgiving Day. This will generate rain across both regions with a little bit of snow in the TX panhandle by Thursday morning.

Upper level jet, lift indicated by the colors.

Temperatures Thanksgiving Day.

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Unfortunately the disturbance is slow to move out, so rain should hang in for much of the day. The next system is now progged to dig farther south across the W US, which slows it down. This allows better instability to reach OK on Friday, generating a few thunderstorms. Saturday will get more rain and the system will finally move though with potential snow in NW OK early Sunday. Very cold arctic air will move in behind the system on Sunday and hang around for awhile. 

I’ll have more on the latter part of the week, because there could be some interesting developments with respect to severe weather and snow.  -AT

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