Highlights for this week will be a return of some severe weather and signifiant rainfall.
Up first, a weak cold front will drift into the central part of the state Monday afternoon streching from NW OK into C OK. A few marginally severe storms will develop along this feature as shown in the model data below. Some of these storms will produce small hail.
The second round of storms will fire Tuesday afternoon along the same frontal boundary that drifts a little farther north, but this time contain larger hail.
The third round of shows and storms will move through Wednesday producing widespread signifiant rainfall. There are a couple of models that indicate we could have a small region across the southern counties of Oklahoma that may see tornadic type storms. This assumes two things at this point: 1. The CAP isn’t as strong as most models indicate and 2. The system slows down, as most models have it moving out of the state by late afternoon. The most agressive positioning indicating the tornado threat is shown below. Odds are the CAP will hold in Oklahoma, and storms erupt farther south into Texas.
Another weak system will move through the state on Friday triggering more rain. This will bring the total rainfall for the week into the 1-2″ category for many areas.
Temperatures have finally moved away from winter status and into Spring again. This is about what you can expect across the state, give or take a few degrees in each city. Forecast shown is for OKC.
Long term, more widespread severe weather doesn’t show up until potentially on the 27th and in early May. That is when parts of the area see significant CAPE and shear return. The details will reveal the threats at that time, but it’s typically large hail and damaging wind. For the tornado potential to arrise, the directional shear seems adequate, but the speed shear is too weak. Time will tell if this holds down the road. Regardless, May will get busy again with tornadic setups like it does just about every year.
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