Absolutely outstanding weather across Oklahoma through Wednesday before moisture and the threat of storms return. Look for daytime highs in the 70s and 80s statewide, with lows in the 50s and 60s. Here is a look at the temperatures expected across OKC and Tulsa for an example.
On Thursday, enough moisture should return to trigger a few showers and storms as the upper jet stream pattern orientates into a SW flow. This is a typical pattern for May, but as always, the devil is in the details. On Thursday itself, the main storm system is in Canada, with the trailing trough axis dipping southward to New Mexico. The upper flow is extremely weak across Oklahoma with this setup, so most of the energy and stronger wind is to our north. Storms shouldn’t be too intense as a result.
After Thursday, the moisture gets deeper and you’ll feel it in the form of those humid mornings and afternoons. The upper flow continues out of the southwest, so we should get thunderstorms just about every day at this point until that changes. Usually the dryline out west is the actuator in these scenerios, and any leftover storm boundaries after that.
On Sunday, the models are having trouble with the next storm system. Does it come through Oklahoma as a progressive low, a cut-off low, or does it shear apart into a much weaker trough axis. The outcome can differ quite a bit on specifics with each scenario. Three models are shown below. The results will be shifting the threat into specific parts of the state and controlling the severity of them. We’re simply too far out to answer the details yet, so just plan on having storms around the state for Sunday and Monday until the signal settles down. I’d like to see the system be progressive so we can clear out for Monday.
If we can get a few good rounds of storms over this 5 day period, rainfall amounts may end up looking something like this below to help keep the developing drought at bay.
So as of today, there are signals for at least a few storms this coming holiday weekend, and there’s not many years we get to escape Memorial Day severe weather. Even when things look fairly tranquil, they can change rather quickly as models knee-jerk to rapidly changing jet stream configurations. Let’s just keep those tornadoes out of it, and if we do, we’ll continue our current trend of having one of our quietest May’s regarding tornadoes! -AT