Things are becoming a little more active, for summer anyway, so here is a look at the big picture. Also just a reminder to please use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, for day to day weather forecasts and information.

It’s still storm season in Oklahoma through about mid July, although the magnitude of severe weather dimishes, especially with tornadoes. The focus is usually with microbursts, occasional decent sized hail, and if we can get a mean squall line to roll through, widespread wind.

The current state of the drought is a little better from the recent rains, but we could always use more this time of the year.

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Current drought outlook.

An weak upper low will shear apart and slowly come across as an upper disturbance in the jetstream flow. A stronger upper low will reside across the NW and keep us in a SW flow aloft. This will allow occasional weak triggers to initiate some storm activity. Timing is always difficult to pinpoint far out during this time of the year because the lift is so subtle and the flow so weak.

Jetstream pattern shift

Center Phase Energy

Case in point, before this main energy arrives starting Sunday, there will be a few showers or storms in far NW OK late Friday/Saturday. All eyes then shift to a dryline that will setup across the TX panhandle on Sunday. That should trigger a few storms as the map below indicates. These will drift eastward into far W OK by Sunday evening. Hail and wind are the threats with any of these.

Storms late Sunday.

On Monday, better moisture and instability arrive to take advantage of the weak upper lift. CAPE values are off the charts and wind shear is pretty decent. Another dryline setup will take place near the OK border. The convergence along the dryline is fairly weak due to predominantly south wind vectors on either side of this moisture divide. That said, we should see at least a few storms errupt and they should be stronger than the ones on Sunday. These will move across W OK during the evening hours drifting east. Sometimes they hold together long enough to make it into parts of C OK, and sometimes they don’t.

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CAPE vs Shear on Monday.

Dryline boundary out west.

Although they’ll be stronger, due to the high cloud bases, high LCLs, wind and hail are the threats.

High LCL’s limit threat to hail/wind.

Long term, three global models paint the total rainfall for the state through July 6th. It doesn’t look all that great either.

Model 1 Total Rainfall Projections.

Model 2 Total Rainfall Projections.

Model 3 Total Rainfall Projections.

Temperature-wise, things won’t be too bad. Here is the breakdown for OKC and Tulsa as an example.

Temperatures for OKC

Temperatures for Tulsa

I’ll have a more detailed look at July 4th in a few days. So be sure to check back later. -AT

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