Our excellent summer weather continues for a few more days before things heat up once again.
The upper level ridge remains across the desert SW, keeping us in a NNW flow aloft. This allows weak disturbances to roll through the state, generating some rainfall. As we go through time, the ridge will readjust and shift back into Texas and Oklahoma. Where it sets up will decide if we hit those 100s again and shut off the rain. As of now, it appears that kind of heat may reside across far SW OK and a few showers and storms will still be possible riding across the top of the ridge and across the state in the extended outlook.
Upper ridge SW US currently.
Pattern changes with ridge shifting into TX/OK by Saturday.
In the meantime, a weak front continues to make progress through the state allowing a surface high to move in with light NNE winds and cooler temperatures. Lows Tuesday morning are the pick of the litter with some 50s across the state! But as the ridge builds, so will the temperatures in the extended. Keep in mind that is typical for August, but things can still change that far out. Extended forecast shown for OKC, but similar in other parts of the state.
Temperatures Tuesday morning.
OKC long-range temperatures.
With respect to rainfall, it appears we’ll see at least 3 waves. The first late tonight/Monday morning across the west. Another Monday night/Tuesday morning and a third much stronger wave early Wednesday morning as a disturbance moves in. Rainfall amounts will be feast or famine, but under some of the stronger storms, a couple of inches can quickly occur. Also most of the rain will be confined to the W half of OK in the first 2 waves, with the 3rd wave covering much of C OK and parts of E OK. I did say most, but not all. In a NNW flow it can be more randomized with any afternoon isolated activity that develops, so keep my free weather app handy to track radar. You can download ATsWeatherToGo here -> Get the app!
Storms late Sunday night.
Storms late Monday night.
Strong disturbance early Wednesday morning.
Storms Wednesday morning.
Example of rain total distribution through Tuesday evening.
There are signs for at least more isolated activity down the road, but nothing widespread at the moment. I’ll keep an eye on it and update you accordingly. Enjoy these much cooler temperatures! 80s for highs and 60s for lows, can’t beat it this time of year!
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