Two hurricanes will be entering the Gulf of Mexico, Marco and Laura. Both storms will hit the gulf coast here in the US. Marco will arrive first in a very weak tropical storm structure on Monday likely near the SE LA coastline. Laura will follow as a strong hurricane with either a landfall in the same region or may skirt the coast and push closer into the Houston/Galveston area by late Wednesday. Hurricanes are extremely difficult to predict several days out and only get better within the 48 hour window of arrival.
The upper pattern has a ridge to our west, which has allowed us the break from the extreme summer heat, and a TUTT Low into S Texas. With another ridge nudging into the SE US, this creates a channel of airflow that rotates clockwise around that ridge and counterclockwise around the upper Low. This will help guide the first storm due north.
Upper level pattern Monday.
Hurricane model 1 for Marco landfall.
Hurricane model 2 for Marco landfall.
NHC track for Marco.
By Wednesday the Low has drifted to the north in Oklahoma. This will lesson the pull on the 2nd hurricane, which may allow the storm to miss the intended target of LA again. The low will also allow a few showers and storms to return to Oklahoma that day.
Upper level pattern Wednesday.
Rain returns to Oklahoma Wednesday.
Hurricane model 1 for Laura landfall.
Possible Hurricane Laura landfall in Houston.
Both of the above models show the storm hugging the coastline and quite strong as either a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Obviously this is the worst case scenario, but something to watch and prepare for along the gulf coast area from SE TX to SE LA by Wednesday. It’s definitely possible the storm does not strengthen this much if Marco can upwell the waters a bit and cool them down by a couple of degrees. That’s a big IF, but it’s on the table. The longer Laura is over the water, the better shot it has to continue intensification.
The European model has quite the possible spread on Laura and will refine and shrink the area over the coming days of course. Also the latest tracks posted from the National Hurricane Center shown below will also be adjusted as new data comes in. So expect many changes in the official outlook of intensity and location.
European Spaghetti model tracks for Laura.
NHC track for Laura.
Regarding Oklahoma weather, we’re not suffering too much from a late season drought although temperatures are still summer-like. The pattern will soon change to allow a strong trough to dig into the NW US, which will drive a cold front through the state just in time for Labor Day weekend. Temperatures on that Saturday may end up being very pleasant!
Current drought conditions.
Upper level pattern September 1st.
Temperatures September 5th.
Tulsa Temperatures next several days.
OKC Temperatures next several days.
You can track the latest hurricane model data and official NHC track in my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo. Just download it directly from Apple or Google Play stores by searching for the name. That’s it for this big update. I’ll keep an eye on developments and update as necessary. -AT
