The Labor Day Weekend is here! After a wild week of cooler temperatures and flooding rains, things dry out and heat up a bit for the weekend.

The weak cold front that moved in Thursday across the north will settle into C OK and fall apart during the day on Friday. Unfortunately this won’t provide any cooling, but will be a boundary for a couple of showers or a thunderstorms to develop on. Odds are best east of OKC into E OK. After that, there isn’t much of a signal for rain through Monday.

Isolated showers/storm late Friday.

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Temperatures won’t be as cool as models had indicated a week or so ago. Instead that big front is delayed until Tuesday. More on that in a second. Expect temperatures this weekend to hover into the upper 80s to a few low 90s. Heat index values will remain in the low 90s due to the increase in humidity from recent rains. Under partly cloudy skies, winds will mainly be light from the E/SE until they pick up on Monday. So be sure to apply that sunscreen and drink plenty of fluids!

Then we focus our attention on what comes next! Models are at war on the upper pattern. If the 500mb trough swings through on Tuesday, we get cold, and I mean cold. If it hangs back and stalls across Colorado, then we cool down late, but it won’t be as drastic. That will allow for a cooler Wednesday instead. In either event we should get more rain out of the next system. Either it will be a mostly E OK event or an entire state event depending on the position of the trough and speed.

What kind of potential are we looking at? How does afternoon temperatures dropping into the 40s sound? Winds gusting in a “true norther” fashion over 40 mph! Well if the new GFS American model has its way, that is our result. The European and Canadian cry foul, and the UK Model meets the American half-way. Ah, the joys of forecasting!

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GFS model upper level pattern Tuesday afternoon.

European model upper level pattern Tuesday afternoon.

GFS model temperatures Tuesday afternoon.

GFS model departure from normal temperatures Tuesday.

GFS model rainfall Tuesday afternoon.

GFS model wind Tuesday afternoon.

European model temperatures Tuesday afternoon.

That’s quite a difference in temperatures, isn’t it! The Euro is typically king, but maybe, just maybe we’re catching up! Time will tell. Place your bets. But wow, -30+ degrees below normal??? That’s crazy talk!

Now in the end, the truth will likely lie in the middle. For now, here is a good take on your extended temperatures for OKC and Tulsa. Other areas of the state will be similar.

Center Phase Energy

OKC long-range temperatures.

Tulsa long-range temperatures.

I hope you have a great holiday weekend and stay safe out there! A reminder to download my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, from Apple or Google Play to keep that backyard BBQ dry from any showers heading your way. Just search for it by name. -AT

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