Are you ready for Fall temperatures? They’re coming quick! An unusually strong cold front will blast through NW OK during the day Tuesday. Due to the upper pattern, the cold air will slow down and then slowly work south and east overnight into Wednesday. Also we’ll be dealing with more heavy rainfall, so some areas may see some flooding as a result.

So in the prior blog, I asked the question if the new American GFS model was going to take the reigns from the European, as it moved the upper low across quickly, while the Euro held back. Well, fast forward a few days and once again the Euro is still king. The GFS blew it. So what does that mean? It means the cold air won’t be as vicious, will slow down, and the rain will be more widespread and linger.

Here’s the upper pattern for Tuesday. Notice the cut-off low over the Rockies. It will actually sit there for a few days and that will hold up the cold air infiltration, parking it just east of the I-35 corridor. It also allows moisture to pool in from the Gulf to keep the rain going around here.

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Upper level low Tuesday.

On Saturday, the upper low finally moves through the central US. This will push the rain out by Friday and any residual cool air through the rest of the state. By then expect a lot of moderation however. So that just means a nice weekend coming up.

Upper level low Saturday.

Center Phase Energy

The rain will start during the day Tuesday as the front moves through and will expand eastward from this graphic Tuesday night. Over the coming days, significant rainfall totals will occur, which might lead to some flooding. Notice how much rain fell during the last event. So any of these areas picking up another 2-3″ may experience an issue.

Rain covers W half of OK Tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall totals from the last system a week ago.

Rainfall totals expected with this system.

Temperatures are going to be very tricky. It all depends on where the front puts the breaks on. Hi-resolution models take a stab at it below for Tuesday afternoon, then Wednesday and Thursday. Notice how cold it is. The record low is 50 degrees in OKC Wednesday morning and 47 Thursday morning. So it’s going to be a close call!

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Low temperatures Wednesday morning.

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

Low temperatures Thursday morning.

Temperatures Thursday afternoon.

Friday will moderate even more with mid to upper 60s statewide and then back to around 80 for the weekend with overnight lows in the 50s and then 60s. Welcome to Fall in Oklahoma and our first Blue Norther! -AT

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