There’s a lot to discuss for this weekly update…

Up first was the strong cold front that moved through on this Sunday, driving our first shot of cold temperatures into the state. That will set the stage for a cold night and cool Monday. Only light precipitation is occurring with this system, with the heaviest rainfall in far E OK and AR. We will see additional fog, drizzle, and sprinkles across C OK Monday night and Tuesday morning with limited sun through Tuesday. Additional sprinkles or light showers Tuesday evening/night, but nothing significant. Unfortunately none of this helps the current drought situation, which will continue to build into our Winter season.

Temperatures Monday morning.

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Temperatures Monday afternoon.

Rainfall totals through Tuesday night.

Current drought conditions.

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There is another opportunity for little more rain Thursday night/Friday morning and again Sunday as an active Fall weather pattern is kicking into high gear for the 2nd half of October and into November. As one of our biggest cold fronts arrive, the European model is having a little too much fun with it, producing a few inches of snow Sunday night. This is not expected to verify at this time, but I’ll keep an eye on it. 

Euro model produces snow (in blue) on the 26th.

Temperatures with that big cold front will bring our first potential widespread freeze around the 27th or 28th of the month, as much of the country will be locked into a cold pattern.

Center Phase Energy

A freeze possible around the 28th.

Take a look at the expected temperature trends for OKC and Tulsa below. 

OKC 10-Day Temperatures

Tulsa 10-Day Temperatures

In the extended outlook, it appears to be a cool and dry Halloween setting up with temperatures around 50 degrees during the evening on the 31st. The long-range American model output is shown below.

OKC long-range forecast

There will likely need to be a few tweaks to the forecast later this week to deal with timing, precipitation, and better temperature estimates. It’s also my birthday later this week and I do plan to take a little time off, but will update when I can. Make sure to keep my weather app handy when I’m not available. Download ATsWeatherToGo from the play stores today! -AT

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