All of a sudden we’ve got a lot to talk about in the coming 7 days…

First off, a storm system will affect the state on Tuesday. Expect scattered showers in the morning and then severe storms in the late afternoon and evening. The area the models are focused on most is N half of OK closer to the triple point initiation around Enid and then expanding east and south from there. The aggressive Texas Tech WRF is used here to highlight that conditions may indeed be favorable for a tornado or two. Indications are that hail size should be no greater than 1″ and wind gusts could exceed 65 mph. I’ll update you on any tornado potential Monday night, it’s still a little early to be certain of this threat.

Dewpoint map indicating moisture return with classic surface features.

Center Phase Energy

Tornado parameter.

Models focus storms in N half of OK for now.

Rainfall totals Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

Center Phase Energy

Thanksgiving Day looks great! Mostly sunny, south wind around 10-15 mph, and temperatures rebounding into the 60s for the afternoon.

Thanksgiving Day.

Then all eyes focus on the next storm system. The European model will be my choice for this extended part of the forecast. Notice the position of the upper low as it moves through Sunday morning. This is conducive for a burst of heavy wet snow with surface temperatures in the mid 30s. Should this occur, the snow will melt slowly during the afternoon as the system moves away due to rebounding temperatures and the warm ground. It would be a sight to see! Other models hint at this solution with more confidence in measurable snow in NW OK. Stay tuned on this development!

Center Phase Energy

Upper low moving directly overhead Sunday.

Euro produces a mix of rain and snow under the center Sunday morning.

Just for fun, model snow totals. Won’t verify, too far out.

Overall rainfall totals for Tues, Sat, and Sun.

The extended forecast for Oklahoma City is shown below. It should be fairly representative of the rest of the state on trends. Notice the accumulating rainfall for Tuesday and the weekend along with accumulating snow. I’ll be watching model trends and will update you accordingly. -AT

Extended outlook for OKC.

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