Rain has returned to the forecast for a bit, and so has more snow. Details below.

Expect scattered showers along the I-44 corridor Saturday and Sunday with heavier scattered thunderstorms in SE OK and points eastward. The next storm system approaches Monday night bringing additional rain and snow with it. The most likely area for snow will be in W/C OK assuming we can get enough cold air at the surface. We’ll rely heavily on the NAM model for this forecast as others aren’t as bullish.

All models agree on the upper low moving across C OK which is a favorable track for snowfall. Temperatures on the model have us in the low to mid 30s, which is cold enough for the snow not to melt as it falls. Other models are as warm as 40 degrees. If that’s the case then all the snow would melt a couple thousand feet above our head and fall as a chilly rain instead.

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Upper storm system moving across Tuesday morning.

Temperatures Tuesday morning.

Oklahoma snow Monday night.

The NAM is putting out some significant QPF (rainfall equivalent) due to precipitable water values approaching 0.75″ during the peak of moisture return. It also has a snow ratio of about 8:1, so less of that water will convert to a depth of snowfall. As it is, with melting from us being slightly above freezing and ground temperatures recovering a bit, don’t expect anything like the last two storms. The sweet spot bullseye around Canadian county is up to 3-4″ max.

QPF (rainfall equivalent) through Tuesday

Likely snowfall totals expected Monday night and Tuesday morning.

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After that system passes, another stronger storm system will move in for Thursday, the 4th. Expect thunderstorms to return to C OK and some of those may become severe with a little hail and wind. I’ll have more on that as we get closer. Those storms will move into Arkansas for Friday.

Storms on Thursday.

Temperatures in the extended appear to be fairly mild in the afternoon and chilly at night. All in all a mostly uneventful first two weeks of March is planned.

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Long-term temperature trend.

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