Is a flooding event on the way? Let’s take a look at your extended forecast.

For a few days the weather is going to be very nice. The severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows that there is low confidence in any severe weather risk through next weekend. However, the analogs do indicate some potential hail and wind threats on Saturday. Of course it’s way too early to speculate that issue, but something to watch for over the coming days.

Long-range severe weather outlook.

Experimental Analog guidance for severe storms on Saturday.

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Our first chance for a little bit of rain, including some elevated weak storms would be late Wednesday. Models indicate a strong CAP is in place, so activity should not be widespread nor particularly strong.

A few showers or elevated storms late Wednesday.

Better moisture and dynamics start to influence the area on Friday as a cold front slowly works into the state and stalls. This sets the stage for what could be a disastrous weekend with flash flooding on the table. There is a signal for excessive rainfall floating around the S Plains. The European model shown here is the most bullish for C OK. Other models favor NE OK into SW MO. Time will tell where this bullseye settles, but should things play out as the model data indicates, several inches of rainfall is expected over a 48 hour window until the system moves away Sunday night. That dark blue region you see on the map is heavy snow. 

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Heavy rain and snow setting up this weekend.

Potential rainfall totals this weekend.

Likely overdone, but significant snow expected out west as well.

And before you get Spring Fever, remember that freezes often occur in March and sometimes in early April. Our next freeze may be around the 17th. 

AM temperatures on the 17th.

Long-term temperature trend in OKC.

That’s all for now. As a reminder, storms season typically begins in March and what may seem like a quiet stretch now, can quickly change as the Jetstream buckles. We’re still in a transition period where Old Man Winter doesn’t want to give up, so there will be wild temperatures swings through the end of the month. Download my app, ATsWeatherToGo, now to be ready for any storms that come your way. I’ll update for next weekend as the data becomes more clear. -AT

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