This blog will be short. Looking at the data tonight, I’m concerned that we’ll see supercells overnight tomorrow with a few tornadoes. Watch the video replay below for the detailed specifics on the how’s and why’s.
Severe storms will break out near the state boarder of the Texas panhandle around midnight and travel east. They should be widely scattered in nature allowing them to maintain supercell characteristics with large hail and damaging winds. This also helps the tornado potential. There is plenty of CAPE and wind shear favorable for tornadic type storms. Below is a radar representation of how they should look around 1am out west with any one of these capable of producing a tornado. The broken line of storms will move through C OK between 2-4am. Once they get east of I-35 they will slowly start to weaken as they die off across the E 1/3rd of the state by daybreak. The NAM model forecast sounding is shown below as well to highlight the severe parameters in place.
I’ll update at lunch on Tuesday and again Tuesday night after 9pm. Be sure to download my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, now to your smart phone. It predicts tornadoes before they occur, giving you more time to seek shelter. -AT