That title just about says it all!

So first things first, we do have rain back finally. It won’t be a lot for everyone, but some will make out okay this week. There will be a few marginally severe storms, but nothing serious. We just don’t have the instability back yet. More on that in a second. The first round of rain moves through the state overnight into Wednesday morning. The second round late Wednesday afternoon and evening. The third round lasts longer, starts Thursday late day and wraps up late Friday. Rainfall amounts with the 3 waves could look something like this but with a few hot spots around 2 inches:

Rainfall totals through Friday.

Then we focus on a mini-cold spell. We’ll have a few mornings with light winds and clear skies. This will allow patchy frost to develop and likely even a freeze for a few. So you will need to cover those sensitive plants you have out there. I mentioned a frost mid-April in my last blog. OKC temperature trends are shown below, but you’ll need to monitor your city with my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to get your daily hi and low temperatures. You’ll want to check it daily as those low numbers will change a bit.

Freeze Sunday morning

OKC Temperature Trend

So where is our severe weather season? Short version. It’s shut down. The SPC outlook over the next several days is pretty quiet. If we take a look at the long-range GFS model that overlays instability (CAPE) and wind shear, we see that it’s all confined in the Gulf and parts of Texas for the rest of the month. There are a couple of times when a little bit sneaks up into Oklahoma, so we’ll watch for a greater severe weather threat then. That should be in about 10 days from now and at the last day of the month. May looks to be active as normal. Time will tell…

SPC Outlook

Animation of instability trapped down south.

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