So the last week had multiple rounds of rain and storms, but there were plenty of dry hours to get things done. This week will be similar. It will also be difficult to time things out far in advance as the pattern is too wimpy with weak transient signals. Overall the severe weather threat is low as shown by SPC, but it is the last week of May, so I do expect some funny business at some point. One of those days will be Tuesday which I’ll discuss below. Other days could end up being Thursday and Friday for severe storms. It’s *possible* that Wed, Saturday-Monday (Memorial Day Weekend) will be mostly dry days!

Rainfall past week.

SPC severe weather outlook.

First take a look at the short-term animation of how rain will move through the state. Round one occurs early Monday morning through early evening across the I-35 corridor and points east. The second round occurs during the Tuesday afternoon time frame as an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) rotates through from SW OK around noon to C OK mid afternoon, to NE OK late afternoon. Wind shear is enhanced in the vicinity of these features (see sounding) which can lead to tornadoes. Therefore, I do expect a couple of tornadoes Tuesday afternoon at this point across C/NE OK. This does include the greater OKC/Tulsa areas. More details will be available to discuss Tuesday morning, so be sure to check my social media channels for updates.

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Rain animation.

MCV moving through generating severe storms.

Forecast sounding for C OK Tuesday afternoon showing large hail and tornado potential.

After Tuesday, the pattern is still an off/on wet one. Watch how the Jetstream changes with time through early June. Most of the strong winds are shifted up north away from Oklahoma. This is more typical of a summer time pattern for us. Weaker winds aloft, equals less severe weather overall. Notice I said less, not none. As mentioned before that streak shown on Thursday/Friday below will be a storm maker and then we’ll have to see what is on the table for the 1st week of June.

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Jetstream pattern today with tropical conditions in OK & TX.

Jetstream pattern shifts to SW flow by Friday.

Jetstream goes zonal flow (W to E) with weak disturbances rotating through.

Temperatures will remain about where they have been. A mix of 70s and 80s for daytime highs depending on clouds, rain, and sun mixtures with overnight lows in the 60s. My grass is loving this weather! 

OKC temperature trend.

Make sure you use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to predict those tornadoes on Tuesday and any severe weather we get at the end of the week. You can download it from the Apple and Google play stores. Finally, be sure to tune into my live broadcasts when I discuss the forecast in more detail or cover the tornadic storms. -AT


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