I struggled with the title on this one. While it will be hot and dry this week (and humid), there will also be rainfall from Sunday night through Monday morning, and again Friday night through next weekend. So not all of the news is bad news. As a matter of fact, we still haven’t hit 100 degrees officially at Will Rogers Airport in OKC, and we likely won’t this week either. We’re running out of summer days, so maybe we go through 2021 without hitting the century mark. Tulsa hasn’t been as lucky, they hit 101 the last day of July. Other parts of W/NW OK are also struggling to climb above 100 degrees.

100 degree days on the OK Mesonet sensor network.

Speaking of the short-term, a quick moving disturbance will generate more showers and storms Sunday night and those will move into NE OK, then southward into C and E OK through Monday morning. Rainfall amounts will be like the Saturday night outcome. Not everyone will see rain and those that do will range from just a few drops to more than an inch.

Center Phase Energy

Rainfall totals Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Model forecasted rainfall through Monday morning.

Since we continue to get these quick rounds of rainfall and are absent of extreme heat, the drought remains minor to non-existent across the state.

OK drought.

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So the Jetstream will reconfigure yet again with a weak ridge down to our south to position back west across the Rockies. This places us in a NW flow aloft and little disturbances will rotate down the mountain ridge and into the state (represented by the yellow-red vorticity colors). This also will allow a weak cold front to move in from the northeast. We call that a backdoor front as the surface high originates across the Great Lakes and Midwest. This gives us just a glancing blow but enough for a subtle change.

Upper ridge to the south.

NW Flow by the weekend.

The weekend won’t be a washout but you will have to plan around the scattered shower and storm activity. It will occur anytime over day and night. Rainfall amounts will be decent again with another 2″ in many areas.

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Developing rainfall for the weekend.

The OKC temperature trend is hot through the week but cools down as the front moves in and the upper pattern changes.

OKC Temperature trend.

Long-term trends for August continue to indicate a chaotic Jetstream configuration. This means excessive long-term heat isn’t likely, but a few days here and there will be hot. It also suggests weak cut-off lows will propagate through generating cooler conditions and additional rainfall. Overall, our summer has been great and it continues to look that way! =) -AT

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