The Oklahoma State Fair starts on Thursday this week. That typically means rainfall, right? Well, we’re about to find out of that’s true for 2021.

First up, there is another tropical storm in the gulf, Nicholas, that will be making landfall Monday night as either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. Due to its slow nature of movement during the week, expect some flooding rainfall along the coast.

National Hurricane Center information.

Hurricane model showing landfall as a weak CAT 1 storm Monday night.

Rainfall in SE TX.

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Nicholas will be guided by the Jetstream with a ridge off to the east and off to the west. Remember that air flows clockwise around these Highs, so that will help bring the storm north. Note the red line. The active part of the Jetstream is north of this line where things are moving along. South of the line, it’s stale and slow. This means that this tropical storm may end up stalling out across NE OK for a few days. This would bring some rain to far SE OK by the end of the week if so.

Tropical Storm guided north between two Highs.

Storm stalls over NE TX late week.

Rainfall should occur in this area Friday and Saturday.

Other than the tropical storm, another weak cold front will move into NW OK late Tuesday. Unfortunately this one will lose steam quickly and wash out. However, it will at least bring some scattered showers and storms with it Tuesday evening through Wednesday across the area. The model shown below is the most aggressive I could find, and that’s really saying something. Meaning, this will be a pretty sad outcome. Also a quick mention there should be some isolated activity late Monday across SE OK due to moisture return in advance of Nicholas.

Center Phase Energy

A little rain across the state through Wednesday.

The next opportunity for more widespread rainfall will come with a very strong cold front on the 21st-22nd.  Other than that expect dry and hot conditions for the first weekend of the fair. Winds will be fairly light early and pick up a bit by Sunday. Long-term data suggests more scattered rainfall activity will begin at the start of the second weekend of the State Fair, so plan accordingly and enjoy your week! -AT

Rainfall Tue/Wed of the following week.

OKC Temperature Trend.

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