In my blog last week we talked about a storm system arriving for Monday to bring back rain and would watch out for severe weather potential in October, as it is our mini-severe weather season. Turns out the system came in about 12 hours sooner and the quality and depth of the moisture return was much greater. In those cases I’ll usually update you via social media and live broadcasts, so be sure to catch those! 

We saw about a dozen weak and short-lived tornadoes in the state. The strongest was over the town of Coweta where a tornado hit a high school. Most of the other brief touchdowns were over farm land or wooded areas. The models and atmospheric conditions promised a more serious outcome. I’m glad they did not come through. That said, a repeat of ingredients is showing up again Tuesday night. So stay weather aware!

Preliminary tornado reports.

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The next upper level storm system moves by to our north but the trailing energy affects Oklahoma along with a dryline and warm sector. Expect storms to break the cap by early evening across W and WC OK. Some of these will likely be tornadic along with wind and hail. The next storm system shows up Thursday night in the Jetstream. That will produce our next significant rainfall across the state.

Storm system late Tuesday.

Storm system late Thursday.

Storms return Thursday night.

Rainfall totals for the week look very good when you take an averaged blended approach. There will be spots of higher amounts leading to flash flooding as is always the case in intense severe storms.

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Estimated rainfall totals for the week.

Back to the severe weather on Tuesday. Once again moisture returns at last minute so we end up with an after dark situation. Shear and CAPE values are adequate for severe weather. The Significant Tornado Parameter is off the charts again across the west during the evening. So any storm that forms in this environment will be capable of becoming tornadic. The threat should weaken with time and as storms shift east. There will also be several pockets of wind damage with gusts in excess of 60 mph. A lot of severe storms will develop across W KS as well with a few tornadoes. All storms will travel eastward overnight. 

CAPE and shear profiles.

Significant tornado parameter.

Severe storms Tuesday evening.

Severe storms in Kansas.

The forecast soundings from two of our best severe weather models indicate similar atmospheric conditions but one has a much stronger cap that may help to limit storm formation. The other opens up the door to more. Unfortunately this won’t become more clear until Tuesday, but I’ll discuss the latest on the next broadcast.

Model 1 with CAP.

Model 2 no CAP.

The temperature trend over the coming days looks more like October. Yay!

OKC Temperature Trend.

If you haven’t’ downloaded my weather app yet, what are you waiting for? Search for ATsWeatherToGo on Apple and Google Play stores. It will give you more time to seek shelter like it did for this family last night: “I live about 2 mi S of where a tornado hit last night. This app gave us a 19 minute wrng of twisting storm heading our direction. & a 3 minute warning for a tornado. it was enough time to get my 3 small children to safety before my phone alert went off.”

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