Things can change quickly this time of year, so from here out, make sure you stay tuned the forecasts over the holiday time period. Signals are starting to show for a couple of winter storms and looks like we’ll squeeze in a nice Christmas in-between.

First off, a quick reminder that anytime we go for days without rain, and winds kick up, we can get brief elevated fire dangers. We saw that take place on Sunday and it will happen again this Wednesday. The drought has snuck up on us, so we definitely need some rain.

Current drought conditions.

Fire weather tips

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Regarding our weather changes, two cold fronts will move into the state this week. One late Wednesday and another late Friday. Each one will trigger showers and a few storms. Most of the rain will be confined across the SE 1/3 of the state.

Wednesday cold front.

Friday cold front.

After the front Friday, the upper jet stream pattern will help to squeeze out some additional precipitation early Saturday morning, mostly across S OK. This activity stretching down into N/NW TX, will be mixed with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Right now amounts appear to be light, but we are several days away, so it will be watched closely. There is a second round of a wintry mix possible Monday as the upper low moves across another reinforcing cold front moves through. This outcome has low confidence due to lack of strong model signals, but at least the European and American model hint at such an occurrence. This too will be monitored.  The models at least have some light accumulation regarding snow and ice through the weekend. The maps below will change, but the point of showing you now, is to indicate the signals are there 6-8 days away.

Center Phase Energy

Winter mix Saturday morning.

Model signal for light snow accumulation.

Model signal for light ice accumulation.

Rainfall amounts (or the liquid version of any frozen precipitation) look quite decent for the SE. I wish we could get more of the state out west into this zone.

Rainfall amounts through next Monday.

Center Phase Energy

As of now it appears Christmas Day will be mostly cloudy and breezy with temperatures back into the 60s during the afternoon. A couple of days later the next winter storm is starting to show signals, right now indicating the 28th. More on that event as we go through the coming days.

Temperatures Christmas Day

After Christmas winter storm

Overall temperatures will be on a continued roller coaster in both OKC and Tulsa. Your results may vary, so please use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo this winter season to keep tabs on our wild swings.

OKC Temperature Trend.

Tulsa Temperature Trend.

One final note. For those that don’t know, there was a tornado outbreak that stretched from E AR/MO to IL/TN/KY Friday night. The loss of life and damage is devastating. Damage surveys will take a week or more to complete, but initial video documentation indicates there was at least 1 long lived tornado for 200+ miles at times approaching EF5 strength. This may go down in the record books at the longest lived tornado. Please pray for those folks that lost everything, and consider donating to help those in need. Finally, always remember that tornadoes can occur anytime during the year and make sure you take them seriously, whether they occur in May or in December. Have a plan in place and act quickly when watches and warnings are issued. -AT

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