It’s that time of the year where we can talk about tornadoes and snow in the state during the same day! It’s happened many times before and it might happen again this week. My rule of thumb is hold off on discussing tornado probabilities and locations until starting about 48 hours from an event, as too many things can change. So be sure to watch for updates and my live broadcasts!
So our next storm system arrives Wed/Thu. The exact track and timing will determine the location of the severe storms and the snow that moves in on the backside. For now I will side with the NAM model for the severe angle and the Euro for the snow angle. This will likely need to be massaged as we’re still pretty far out, but this will give you the general picture of what’s ahead.
Severe storms will fire late Wednesday afternoon, assuming the CAP isn’t too strong, across W OK. There will already be some weak storm activity across the E half of OK during the morning and early afternoon that moves away into Arkansas. The models show favorable instability and shear which highlights the areas of supercell storms capable of producing tornadoes should all of the ingredients present itself. The storm system could come in slower than expected and if so, that would really limit the severe weather threat. So this isn’t a guarantee by any stretch at this point.
Rainfall with this storm is going to be a godsend as the drought has intensified during our winter.
Again depending how how the upper low comes across, we should see some decent snow with it Thursday morning. Models are split between KS and OK. I’ve sided with the southern solution for now. The ensemble data also suggests we could see another round of snow on the 24th. Remember, don’t focus on amounts this early, just placement and possibilities. I’ll have more in the coming days.
Finally, this front, although cold, is a quick in and out, so decent temperatures return with a quickness! -AT