Take heed, in case you didn’t know it, ice is back with freezing temps that’ll grow it….okay I’ll stop there, it was about to get really bad.

So in all seriousness, another winter storm approaches. We have the typical SW flow in the upper levels as a strong disturbance moves by just to our north. This will cause a couple of waves of wintry precipitation to move through midweek. More on that in a second.

First we need to talk about the threat for severe weather Monday night as the cold front approaches from the north. Expect storms to be borderline severe with hail and wind the main threats across SE OK and AR. Can’t rule out a freak tornado, but probabilities are very low. Timing is after 7pm.

Center Phase Energy

Scattered storms Monday night.

Then as the cold front moves through any given area early Tuesday morning, a light glaze of ice will be possible in it’s wake as it may produce very light freezing rain and/or drizzle. This would be just enough to cause some slippery roadways for a very short window in time, so be extra careful Tuesday morning. If it looks wet, it’s likely a thin glaze of ice on the roads. Be sure to look up the regional road conditions on my website under the weather data tab to get an idea on how things look before heading out the door or planning your trip.

The cold air will continue to pile in and some places may not get above freezing until Sunday. We’re in for our coldest period of the winter season. Tap the image below to animate.

Ferguson Roof Systems is offering an AT's Weather special, Call Today!

Temperatures over the week.

With the arctic air in place, two periods of lift will occur to produce precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s the good news thus far. The models indicate that the airmass will be extremely thick and cold with the shallow warm layer of air overriding it. This means that the raindrops have time to freeze into sleet before striking the ground. This limits power outage issues, but does mess up travel. This area should reside along the I-44 corridor again and points south up to a point before freezing rain will occur instead. This means as of today, the most likely region for significant freezing rain accumulation and power outages will be across SE OK again. This will stretch into AR and into N TX. These amounts shown below will change, but it gives you the idea. Make sure you join me daily on my live broadcasts just before noon and around 9:30 every evening to get the latest precipitation outlook.

Breakdown of sleet vs freezing rain areas.

Potential freezing rain area and amounts.

Potential sleet region and amounts.

Wintry Precipitation Types.

Ferguson Roof Systems

Ferguson Roof Systems is offering an AT's Weather special!

The midlevel lift will begin early Wednesday morning and after a few hours should start producing freezing rain and sleet across the state. Exact hour and minute of start time is not possible at this point, best guess is by 9am. So you don’t have much time to get things done outdoors. As that round wraps up Wednesday night, the second round is already moving in Thursday morning, lasting until Thursday night. Travel will be discouraged across the I-44 corridor and points south and east. A final point to note that there does not appear to be much snow with this system. That said, we may see some light snow or flurries on Saturday as a weak upper system moves through the area. Nothing significant is expected at this time.

Tap to animate precipitation.

Estimated snowfall.

Temperatures will be tricky as models often underestimate the cold. That said, here’s the general idea across OKC. Your results may differ and please use my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, to get your local weather conditions, radar, and forecast. You can download it on the app stores. See you on the live broadcasts! -AT

Long-range outlook.

Liked it? Take a second to support Aaron Tuttle on Patreon!