Severe weather returns late Tuesday with beneficial rainfall. Another weak system will move through late Friday as well.

The timing on the Tuesday system is a little off. The main energy comes out late during the evening/overnight hours and the deeper moisture is still working its way northward from Texas. This means that these two ingredients are limiting factors that help reduce the severity of the event. If we had an extra day to get moisture back and the system come through in the afternoon then we’d be talking about a much different outcome.

So the details show the upper disturbance in the Jetstream out across the TX panhandle Tuesday evening. This lift will aid in storm development during the evening hours as it moves into Oklahoma. Dewpoint values at the start of the event are only in the low to mid 50s. This will cause any storm that fires out west along the dryline to be high based early on with just a hail threat.

Center Phase Energy

Jetstream pattern.

Dewpoints (raw moisture)

As the storms develop during the evening and drift east, better moisture will move in and cause a better chance for tornadoes as we approach midnight and beyond. By this time most of the storms will be east of I-35. The significant tornado parameter is low but highlights the region at midnight.

Significant tornado parameter at midnight.

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There will be some good rain with the events this week. Tap the map to play the animation of the storms on Tuesday and Friday. Rainfall amounts will be highest east of I-35.

Rain animation for Tuesday/Friday.

Rainfall totals.

Long range for the week, we’re just not getting that good moisture into Oklahoma. You can watch the CAPE animation below (tap to play) and see how it keeps getting pushed back to the Gulf of Mexico. We may have to wait until mid-April before the Gulf truly opens up and provides us better opportunities for severe storms that produce tornadoes.

Center Phase Energy

CAPE/Shear animation.

Temperature are getting better each day, but still rather chilly at night for any sensitive vegetation.

OKC Temperature Trend.

Download my free weather app, ATsWeatherToGo, in the app stores now to get up to an extra 15 minutes for developing tornadoes. Also be sure to join me live on my evening broadcasts around 9:30pm and also before noon. You can watch through Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, and now Rumble. See you then! -AT

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